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UFC 185: Punch Drunk Predictions

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Enough is enough.

January and February come and gone and Patrick has a massive 10-fight lead in the 2015 Keyboard Kimura Punch Drunk Prediction standings. 10 fights! Most of that advantage has come from preliminary card bouts, where I’ve been willing to side with a few underdogs and paid the price as a result, but all that changes from here on out.

It’s a new month and we’re heading in a new direction – my comeback starts now!

These are the UFC 185 Punch Drunk Predictions.

Anthony Pettis vs. Rafael dos Anjos

Patrick: Before his fight with Gilbert Melendez at UFC 181, I wasn’t completely sold on Pettis as a 155-pounder who was going to have longevity as the UFC lightweight champion. After his fight with Melendez, however, I was ready to eat everything bad I ever had to say about “Showtime.”

Melendez is easily one of the toughest lightweights in the UFC and Pettis was able to choke him out in under 10 minutes utilizing his high-level submission game that many people forget about because of his dynamic striking.

Rafael dos Anjos is a great opponent with wins in eight of his last nine fights. Possessing a great Brazilian jiu-jitsu base, the 30-year-old has also improved his striking exponentially as of late and could certainly give Pettis some trouble if he pressures him early in the fight. That said, I think Pettis is far too dangerous from everywhere and keeps improving with every fight. Look for a later round finish for “Showtime” in his second title defense.

Prediction: Anthony Pettis by TKO, Round 4

ESK: I now realize it’s going to be tough for me to make a comeback when we’re going to be picking a lot of the same fighters. Sigh…

I think dos Anjos makes this tougher than people expect for all the reasons Patrick pointed out above and because he’s not a guy that makes a lot of mistakes or leaves a lot of openings inside the Octagon. He’s a pretty clean fighter in that regard and that will mean Pettis will have to work a little harder to earn his second consecutive successful title defense. But he’ll get it.

Pettis is one of those fighters that people are only going to truly appreciate after he’s been in a couple drawn out battles and this could be one of them. He’s finished his last four opponents so impressively that casual observers and skeptics are always going to wonder “how would he do against someone that doesn’t give him an opening?” as if “Showtime” is simply blasting a batting practice fastball into the stands every time out.

A hard-fought, gruelling battle gets him another win and a little more respect.

Prediction: Anthony Pettis by Unanimous Decision

Carla Esparza vs. Joanna Jedrzejczyk

Patrick: After derailing the hype train of Rose Namajunas in the TUF 20 finale, Esparza proved herself as the best women’s strawweight fighter in the UFC thanks to her strong wrestling pedigree that was able to shut out the young fireplug.

Jedrzejczyk is a very tough fighter with strong striking coming straight outta Poland (represent!) and she was able to pull out a hard-fought split decision victory over Claudia Gadelha in December. While I think JJ will give Esparza some issues in the striking department, I like the wrestler to dictate most of the pace in this one for her first title defense.

Prediction: Carla Esparza by Unanimous Decision

ESK: I like that you threw a “represent!” in there, but have no interest in picking the Polish fighter; a smooth “I see you… but you’re not winning” move that helps illustrate why you have such a commanding lead in this competition and a great pick’em percentage overall right now.

I honestly think this is a fairly one-sided fight – it’s not that I think poorly of Jedrzejczyk, it’s just that I believe Esparza’s wrestling and her ability blend her striking into her grappling is vastly superior to the challenger’s straightforward striking game and the champion will put her on her butt repeatedly en route to a unanimous decision win. Esparza is too smart and too talented to get drawn into a brawl, which is the only path to victory I see for Jedrzejczyk.

Prediction: Carla Esparza by Unanimous Decision

Johny Hendricks vs. Matt Brown

Patrick: I’m still not 100% sure how we got from Hendricks being the UFC welterweight champion to him fighting for another title shot later this year, but I like fighters with hunger and the 31-year-old has plenty of that. We know he’s got great wrestling and launches bombs but conditioning has held him back in the past and it’s something he needs to master in order to reclaim the title he once held.

Brown is Brown. Tough as hell and constant forward pressure. He loves to stand and exchange and doesn’t care how powerful his opponent dishing out punishment is. That will be a problem here, he’s going to get tagged by Hendricks and it will hurt him. A lot. I know we’ve never seen “The Immortal” get laid out, but I see that streak coming to an end in devastating fashion here.

Prediction: Johny Hendricks by KO, Round 3

ESK: This should be pretty similar to Brown’s fight with Robbie Lawler last summer, where “The Immortal” yet again showed that he is game as all get-out, but not quite on the same level as the absolute best in the division. And for the record: I still think Hendricks is the absolute best in the division. He didn’t look great against Lawler in their second encounter, but I still think he did enough to win the fight and retain his title.

That said, I like that he lost because it has lit a fire under his ass and that should result in fireworks here. I’m not sure Hendricks can stopped Brown cold, but he’s going to try early and often and will ultimately come away with the win.

Prediction: Johny Hendricks by Unanimous Decision

Roy Nelson vs. Alistair Overeem

Patrick: Overeem has been so hit and miss lately that it’s basically become a guessing game to see which version of the former Strikeforce heavyweight champion will show up on any given night. He still moves very well and his striking is top notch, but his chin still seems to be made out of glass.

We last saw “Big Country” on the receiving end of a nasty Mark Hunt knockout in September and losses in three of his last four fights doesn’t look great on the resume. It’s become very apparent that his formula is to land a massive overhand shots in hopes of putting opponents to sleep early. I think Overeem moves better and will find out to tire out the slower and more physically underwhelming Nelson to earn a decision.

Prediction: Alistair Overeem by Unanimous Decision

ESK: I’m really tempted to pick Nelson here because he packs thunder in his right hand and Overeem crumbles every time he gets clipped. It’s not “he’s dazed and needs to recover” either; it is absolutely a “this dude is 12 seconds away from getting finished because he has no idea where he is right now” situation.

But Nelson tires after about three minutes and his movement is best described as “plodding,” which makes it very easy to employ a stick-and-move strategy against him. As long as “Big Country” doesn’t land some big power out of the gate, Overeem should be able to avoid the telegraphed overhand rights that come every 30-45 seconds once Nelson gasses. From there, it just becomes a question of whether or not Overeem goes for the kill or rides out a decision.

Prediction: Alistair Overeem by Unanimous Decision

Chris Cariaso vs. Henry Cejudo

Patrick: Fresh off a title fight against Demetrius Johnson at UFC 178, Cariaso is a durable flyweight fighter with a solid overall game and a fair amount of toughness that gets him through some difficult situations at times.

Cejudo is an undefeated mixed martial artist and former Olympic gold medalist in wrestling who looked great in his bantamweight debut against Dustin Kimura in December. He’s had trouble cutting to 125-pounds in the past, but if the 28-year-old can do so and not give up too much stamina, this will be a long night for Cariaso.

Prediction: Henry Cejudo by Unanimous Decision

ESK: Cejudo is going to have more trouble with making the flyweight limit than he is facing Cariaso, which is a frustrating commentary on both Cejudo’s lack of professionalism when it comes to his new combat sport of choice and the dearth of talent in the flyweight division beyond the Top 5.

As long as the Olympic gold medalist makes weight, he cruises – Cejudo is that damn talented and should probably get fast-tracked to a title shot if he’s able to hit 125 Friday afternoon and pick up another dominant win on Saturday evening.

Prediction: Henry Cejudo by Unanimous Decision

Preliminary Card Picks

Patrick: Pearson, Theodorou, Cruickshank, Rosholt, Pettis, Duffy, de Randamie
ESK: Pearson, Theodorou, Dariush, Rosholt, Pettis, Duffy, Pacheco

2015 Punch Drunk Prediction Standings

Patrick: 54-23-0, 1 NC (.701)
ESK: 44-33-0, 1 NC (.571)



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